Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell). Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. ![]() The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model - the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.Įstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 16% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. Revenues are expected to be $83.86 million, up 25% from the year-ago quarter. This developer of health care software is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.15 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +54.6%. While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 9. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. No cash balance or cash flow is included in the calculation.Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Tabula Rasa Healthcare (TRHC) reports results for the quarter ended March 2023. Please note all regulatory considerations regarding the presentation of fees must be taken into account. Backtested results are adjusted to reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other income and, except where otherwise indicated, are presented gross-of fees and do not include the effect of backtested transaction costs, management fees, performance fees or expenses, if applicable. Actual performance may differ significantly from backtested performance. Further, backtesting allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted until past returns are maximized. Since trades have not actually been executed, results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, and may not reflect the impact that certain economic or market factors may have had on the decision-making process. ![]() ![]() Specifically, backtested results do not reflect actual trading or the effect of material economic and market factors on the decision-making process. Backtested performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. No representations and warranties are made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions. Certain assumptions have been made for modeling purposes and are unlikely to be realized. Changes in these assumptions may have a material impact on the backtested returns presented. General assumptions include: XYZ firm would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. Backtested results are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. Backtested performance is not an indicator of future actual results. Disclaimer: The TipRanks Smart Score performance is based on backtested results.
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